S21: Information Warfare

Misinformation and China

February 23, 2026

Taiwan Strait: Is War Coming?

Book Cover: Ted Carpenter - Coming War With China

Wall Street Journal Story: Coming War Over Taiwan

Change in Words, Change of Heart?

May 28, 2022

The United States has a longstanding one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means. We continue to have an abiding interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

February 13, 2025

The United States has a longstanding one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We continue to have an abiding interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. We expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait.

Key Questions

A soldier from a mine disposal unit stands in front of anti-landing barricades along a coast in Kinmen on May 18, 2009. Pichi Chuang / Reuters
  • Will China invade Taiwan? How do we know?
  • Information warfare: What does it look like?
  • A Useful Fiction? Debate on “One China Principle”

Taiwan: The Island and Its People

Map of Taiwan Strait
  • Mountainous island, roughly the size of MA and CT together
  • East of China and northwest of the Philippines
  • Population: 23 million (2019)
    • 84% “Taiwanese” (Hakka minority and descendants of emigrants from mainland China in recent centuries)
    • 14% mainland Chinese who fled the Communist Revolution in 1949
    • <2% indigenous people

“Always Part of China?” Not Quite

Dutch East India Company
  • 1626-1642: Spanish Formosa
  • 1642-1662: Dutch Formosa

The Zheng State

Zheng Chenggong
  • 1624: Zheng Chenggong Born in Hirado, Japan
  • 1647: Joined rebel against the Manchus to restore the Ming Dynasty
  • 1658: Led maritime kingdom centered on islands of Xiamen (Amoy) and Jinmen (Quemoy), but failed to take Nanjing.

How Taiwan Became Chinese

The mid-17th century painting The Portrait of Koxinga
  • 1661: Defeated the Dutch and set up new base with soldiers and refugees from Fujian
  • 1662: Death. Zheng Kingdom on Taiwan fell to his son.
  • 1683: Qing conquest; Taiwan incorporated into Fujian province.

How Taiwan Became Japanese

Signing of Shimonoseki Treaty, 1895
  • 1885: Taiwan elevated to provincial status in the Qing
  • 1895: Ceded as Japanese colony after Sino-Japanese war

Japanese Rule in Taiwan (1895-1945)

Taiwan and Ryukyu Islands, 1902
  • Agriculture development
  • Transportation and communications infrastructure
  • Returned to China – the Republic of China – in 1945 after WWII

White Terror

Feb 28 Incident, 1947
  • 1947-02: February 28 incident: anti-government uprising suppressed, with 18,000 and 28,000 people dead
  • 1949-05: Martial law declared.
  • 1987-07: Taiwan lifts martial law.

Accidental State

Chinese soldiers load artillery aboard an LCM as ships at anchor await their arrival, 6 February 1955 during Tachen Islands evacuation.
  • 1950-01: Harry Truman affirming the return of Taiwan to China’s Communist government.
  • June 1950: China enters Korean War. U.S. sends troops to Taiwan.
  • 1954: Mutual Defense Treaty in response to the “first Taiwan Strait crisis” after fights over offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu.

Accidental State, continued

A wounded soldier being transported to Taiwan from Kinmen Island in 1958 during a cease-fire. Getty Images
  • 1958-08: Eisenhower sends U.S. forces, including a large naval contingent, to the Taiwan Strait.
  • US Strategy during the Cold War: ROC as the legitimate government of all China, a “democratic” alternative to “Communist China”, and an example of American commitment to Asia

Taiwan Miracle

Soldiers in 1958 on Kinmen Island, also called Quemoy. According to an apparently still-classified document, American officials doubted they could defend Taiwan with only conventional weapons. John Dominis/The LIFE Picture Collection, via Getty Images
  • “Great Leap Outward” into capitalist economy
  • Industrial policy, strong economic bureaucracy, protected and subsidized state-owned enterprises
    • 1978: Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG): sponsorship of computer industry and semi-conductor technology
  • Largely private, Taiwanese-owned, export-oriented economy

Shanghai Communiqué

Anti-landing barricades in Kinmen
  • 1972-02-27: US-China Joint Communiqué – four months after the PRC gained admission to the UN
  • China and the US pledged to work for “normalization” of relations and “people-to-people contacts” and trade opportunities

Taiwan’s Future Deferred

China:

  • Taiwan a strictly internal issue;
  • US troops on Taiwan a violation of Chinese sovereignty
  • Full military withdrawal pressed

US:

  • Troop withdrawal conditional on help to end the Vietnam War
  • insistence on resolution without use of force
  • In the end, Taiwan issue put off for the future

Joint Communique between the United States and China

February 27, 1972

The two sides reviewed the long-standing serious disputes between China and the United States. The Chinese side reaffirmed its position: the Taiwan question is the crucial question obstructing the normalization of relations between China and the United States; the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government of China; Taiwan is a province of China which has long been returned to the motherland; the liberation of Taiwan is China’s internal affair in which no other country has the right to interfere; and all US forces and military installations must be withdrawn from Taiwan. The Chinese Government firmly opposes any activities which aim at the creation of “one China, one Taiwan”, “one China, two governments”, “two Chinas”, an “independent Taiwan” or advocate that “the status of Taiwan remains to be determined”.

Joint Communique between the United States and China (continued)

February 27, 1972

The US side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. With this prospect in mind, it affirms the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all US forces and military installations from Taiwan. In the meantime, it will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes. The two sides agreed that it is desirable to broaden the understanding between the two peoples.

One China Principle

With regards to the PRC:

  • The recognition of the PRC as the sole legal government of China;
  • The “acknowledgment” but not acceptance of the Chinese position that Taiwan is a part of China (Beijing’s “One China” principle);
  • The expectation that any solution to cross-Strait differences would be resolved peacefully.

With regards to the ROC:

  • Termination of the 1954 Mutual Defense Treaty;
  • Status of the island of Taiwan defined as “undetermined,” with the ruling government not considered to be a sovereign state in the international system;
  • Taiwan Relations Act (1979): The United States reserved the right to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan;
  • Provision for the president and Congress to consult on further action in the event of a threat to Taiwan.

1992 Consensus

The Context

  • 1992 meeting between the semi-formal authorities of cross-Strait relations
  • ROC: Straits Exchange Foundation
  • PRC: Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits

The Consensus

  • One China “with respective interpretations”
  • That is: Taiwan is a part of “China”, but with a deliberate lack of clarity on what exactly “China” entailed

Bill Clinton: Three No’s (1998)

Members of Taiwan’s navy participating in a drill, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, January 2024. Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
  • No U.S. support for independence for Taiwan
  • No support for a two-China or “one China, one Taiwan” policy
  • No support for Taiwan’s admittance into any international organization that requires statehood for membership

Whither 1992 Consensus?

PRC:

  • Political baseline allowing for semi-official contacts across the Taiwan Strait

ROC:

  • Rejected by Democratic Progressive Party
  • Tsai Ing-wen: “we have never accepted the ‘1992 Consensus’”
  • The consensus doesn’t represent the will of the Taiwan people: meeting took place prior to the island’s democratization

New National Identity

  • More Taiwanese people feel more closely tied to Taiwan than to the mainland.
  • Majority identify as exclusively Taiwanese.

Changes in the Taiwanese-Chinese Identity of Taiwanese as Tracked in Surveys by the Election Study Center, NCCU

Support for Status Quo

  • Most people in Taiwan support the status quo.
  • An overwhelming majority reject a “one country, two systems” model, especially since Chinese crackdown in Hong Kong.

Changes in the Taiwanese-Chinese Identity of Taiwanese as Tracked in Surveys by the Election Study Center, NCCU

Taiwan: Beneficiary of Global Trade

Taiwan Semi-conductor Coorporation
  • Trade as catalyst to post-war growth
  • Trade-to-GDP ratio: 122% (vs. 40% for China or 25% for US)
  • World’s leading producer of microchips: 1/4 of total supply, 90% of high-end advanced chips

Taiwan’s Strategic Importance to the US

US defense island chains
  • “First island chain”
  • Taiwan strait: Main shipping corridor
  • Semi-conductors
  • “The only Chinese democracy”

Cross-Strait Trade

Taiwan-China Trade Relations, 2013

Cross-strait trade

Taiwan: Victim of its own success?

Taiwan export in goods
  • China: still a top export partner
  • Export reliant on machinery and electrical equipment (especially semi-conductors)
  • Comparative advantage eroded by Chinese self-sufficiency drive and US re-shoring
  • Trade barriers in a de-globalizing world

Discuss: Will China Invade Taiwan?

Economist Cover, August 13, 2022

Economist Cover, May 1, 2021

Joe Biden on Taiwan

Discuss: End of Strategic Ambiguity?

A soldier from a mine disposal unit stands in front of anti-landing barricades along a coast in Kinmen on May 18, 2009. Pichi Chuang / Reuters

Should the US government end its commitment to the One China principle? That is, should the U.S. government pledge to defend Taiwan militarily and clearly define what Chinese actions would elicit a U.S. response?

One China Principle

Source of political stalemate and mutual dissatisfaction

  • Taiwan did not attain U.S. support for its desired status as a sovereign state separate from China; its ambiguous standing in the international system as well as the security provided by the mutual defense treaty.
  • China had to tolerate but not necessarily accept an extensive “unofficial relationship” between the United States and Taiwan, arms sales to the island, and U.S. insistence on a peaceful resolution of the conflict (rejected by the Chinese as interference in their domestic affairs).
  • Central conflict: Is “One China” prerequisite for exchange?

But still the best fiction?

  • US pursues its interests in the Taiwan Strait while having political leverage on both sides of the Strait.
  • It’s best to keep all parties guessing whether, and to what extent, the U.S. military will intervene in a war across the Taiwan Strait.
  • Create uncertainty in both Beijing and Taipei and thereby dual deterrence: threat of U.S. intervention prevents China from invading, and the fear of U.S. abandonment prevents Taiwan independence.

Shifting Ground: One China Policy

Paresh cartoon arts: Strategic ambiguity

CGTN cartoon: US as the real problem

Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow?

“Taiwan stands with Ukraine”

2021:

  • The defense of Taiwan tomorrow as intrinsically linked to the defense of Ukraine today.
  • If the United States hopes to secure Taiwan, it must ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty.
  • Russian victory would embolden China to move against Taiwan.

Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow? A Different Lesson

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia, Feb 18, 2025

2025:

  • Settling the war – without Ukraine or Europe
  • Weakening of Trans-Atlantic Alliance
  • Collapse of “rule-based int’l order”
  • Might is right: Greenland, Canada, Panama, etc.

What Now?

  • How will Trump address the issue of arms sales to Taiwan during his visit to China in March 2026?
  • Would/should the US intervene in a potential Chinese attack?
  • How should the US balance its commitments to Taiwan in its overall relationship with China?

Information Campaign

First, think about…

  • China’s Taiwan Policy
  • Taiwan’s China Policy
  • US’s Taiwan Policy

Then, discuss:

  • What are your messages to people on the mainland / in Taiwan / around the world?
  • What media for which audiences? Give examples.
  • Would you employ misinformation / disinformation as tactic? If so, how?

Taiwanese Influencers and the CCP

Minnam Wolf: Fujian Ship, Fujian See

Story of Minnam Wolf

Chen Tianyuan
  • Taiwanese YouTuber Chen Tianyuan, also known as PYC.
  • Studied at the University of Overseas Chinese (Huaqiao University) in China.
  • On May 30, 2024, he and his music label “Minwang Bensheng” were marked as delinquent debtors after a labor dispute.
  • After leaving China, Chen created a video called “China Propaganda Record” on December 6, 2024.
  • In the video, Chen called his “handler”, revealing how the CCP bribed Taiwanese influencers to promote pro-China views.

Minnam Wolf: Retake the Mainland

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